The Russia Ukraine war: An In-Depth Analysis of a deep rooted enmity

The Russia Ukraine war has been a longstanding and complex issue, rooted in historical tensions and geopolitical power struggles. Entire world was shocked on 24 Feb, 2022. I remember, it was Tuesday when news said Vladmir Putin claimed to commence a “special military operation”, thereby beginning of a never-ending power clash or, in simpler terms, Russia Ukraine war.

In this in-depth analysis we will try to get a comprehensive understanding of what led to war in Ukraine, examining its origins, key events, motivations, and the global implications it carries.

What caused Russia Ukraine war: The backstory. 

To understand the reason of Russia Ukraine war, we first need to have a look at the reasons that goes way beyond Ukraine joining NATO in 2022.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991)

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the beginning of a complex relationship between Ukraine and Russia. In 1994, Ukraine committed to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, leading to the removal and dismantling of former Soviet nuclear weapons within its borders.

A pivotal moment came with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, where Russia, the UK, and the US pledged to uphold Ukraine’s territorial integrity and independence. Responding to regional security threats involving Russia, several Eastern Bloc countries joined alliance with USA. The 2004 Ukrainian presidential election brought controversy, as opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned, with accusations pointing to Russia and sowing the seeds of the great war in Ukraine. Despite initial allegations of vote-rigging, large peaceful protests during the Orange Revolution challenged the election outcome. The Supreme Court of Ukraine, recognizing electoral fraud, annulled the result, leading to a re-run that saw Yushchenko assume the presidency and Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister.

Russian military officers perceived the Orange Revolution as Western attempts to destabilize neighboring countries, a sentiment echoed by President Putin, who accused organizers of subsequent protests in Russia of being linked to Yushchenko. Thus the commencement of a major war in Ukraine which later came to be known as Russia Ukraine war.

The 2008 Bucharest summit witnessed Ukraine and Georgia seeking NATO membership, causing division among NATO members and sowing the seeds for war in Ukraine. In 2013, pro-European Union protests erupted in response to President Yanukovych’s decision not to sign the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement, leading to Russian pressure and threats of sanctions. 

These events weave a tapestry of geopolitical tensions and internal strife that played an important role in sprouting the seed of Russia Ukriane war in years to come.

Geopolitical Context

Even if there is a minute change in a country in south, it plays important role in geopolitical turns of events around the world. So did this decision of Ukraine of seeking to join NATO membership. This decision did not only fueled the Russia Ukraine war but also resulted in further division of the world into pro-Russia and Anti-Russia, meanwhile Middle eastern countries largely decided to be neutral in the beginning of the Russia Ukraine war. We will be discussing more about the role of international involvement in Russia Ukraine war in later part.

The influence of NATO and the EU further complicated the situation. As Ukraine leaned toward the West, Russia viewed this as a direct challenge to its sphere of influence. The potential NATO membership for Ukraine alarmed Russia, as it feared the establishment of a military presence on its borders.

An important turning point in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, known as the Russo-Ukrainian War, took place in February 2014. This conflict was sparked by Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine following the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine. 

Concurrently, Russia provided support to pro-Russian separatists engaged in the Donbas war against the Ukrainian military. The initial eight years of the conflict witnessed not only land-based hostilities but also naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and a notable escalation in political tensions.

This move was seen as a violation of international law and sparked widespread condemnation. The annexation not only resulted in a shift in Crimea’s sovereignty but also manifested as an intense war in Ukraine

Humanitarian Crisis and Global Implications

The present day Ukraine Russia war, or shall I should say war in Ukraine (since its more of an attack on Kyiv), has caused immense suffering for the civilian population. Thousands of lives have been lost, and countless individuals have been displaced or turned into refugees. Many military casualities took place on Russians side – “the Russian military is on its way to lose around 500,000 personal” says the UK’s Ministry of Defence. 

According to UN reports, the Russian Federation initiated missile and drone attacks on Ukraine on January 2, 2024, targeting Kyiv and Kharkiv in ongoing war in Ukraine. In Kyiv, approximately 100 missiles were launched, resulting in at least four civilian deaths and 68 injuries, including two children. 

Falling debris damaged residential buildings, a supermarket, and critical infrastructure, leaving five districts without electricity, heating, and water. In Kharkiv, several missiles struck the city center, causing substantial damage, with at least one civilian killed and 62 injured, including six children. Indeed, this serves as a lifelong reminder of the war in Ukraine that just doesnt seem to end.

Since the series of attacks began on December 29, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) recorded a total of 90 civilian deaths, including two children, and 421 civilians injured across 12 oblasts. 

Shelling and missile attacks in areas of Donetsk oblast occupied by the Russian Federation accounted for eight civilian deaths and 29 injuries. Each casualty will undergo independent verification by HRMMU.

This humanitarian crisis raises important questions about the responsibility of the international community to protect vulnerable populations in the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Russia Ukraine war has also garnered significant international involvement. 

Various countries and international organizations have taken steps to address the war in Ukraine, including providing humanitarian aid and facilitating diplomatic negotiations. The global implications of Russia Ukraine war goes way beyond both, Ukraine and Russia, affecting regional and international stability.

The Key Players in the Russia Ukraine war

In order to fully grasp the complexities of the Russia Ukraine war, it is crucial to analyze the motivations and actions of the key players involved.

Russia’s Role

Russia, as the aggressor in this conflict, has pursued various objectives. From a strategic perspective, it aims to maintain its influence in the region and prevent Ukraine from aligning with the West. 

Vladimir Putin says the operation was conducted to “protect the people”. Additionally, Russia seeks to protect the rights of ethnic Russians living in Ukraine and maintain control over Crimea.

Russia has implemented a combination of military and economic strategies to further its goals. We all know Russia has an economic advantage over Ukraine which played a huge role in fueling of the Russia Ukraine war. According to Forbes, Russia is 11th largest economy in world with its 1,860 USD billion GDP, as of January 2024. 

By employing military force and supporting separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine, Russia has exerted its dominance and manipulated the situation to its advantage. Furthermore, it has utilized economic leverage, such as energy dependency, to assert control.

Ukraine’s Position

Even though, Russia is strongest in this war dynamic, Ukraine has fought commendably in this Russo Ukrainian war. The Ukrainian strategy shocked the entire world by displaying its never-giving up spirit in the Russia Ukraine war.

Ukraine initially employed a defense-in-depth strategy, transitioning to offense in autumn 2022, exploiting the structural personnel deficit and extensive attrition experienced by Russian forces. Attrition became the primary tactical approach, paving the way for operational success in manoeuvre warfare. 

Advanced Western weaponry, including the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), played an important role in war in Ukraine by granting long-range precision strike capabilities to counter Russia’s artillery advantage and indirectly bolstering Ukrainian offensives. 

The Ukrainian armed forces aimed to disrupt Russian cohesion by targeting crucial support systems, primarily through attrition and mass fires rather than precision strikes. The Kharkiv offensive in September 2022 emerged as a tactical triumph, liberating over 6,000 sq kms in under 10 days, attributed to a blend of attrition, manoeuvre tactics, and strategic deployment, supported by HIMARS precision strikes on critical locations behind the Russian front.

War in Ukraine made it enact, what we call, Defence Dominance strategies to protect its borders and repel Russian aggression. 

Through international diplomatic efforts and alliances, Ukraine has garnered support for its cause. Seeking assistance from NATO, the European Union, and other allies, Ukraine has aimed to deter further Russian aggression and find a peaceful resolution to war in Ukraine.

International Involvement

The United States and Western allies have played a crucial role in the Russia Ukraine war. By providing military aid, intelligence, and diplomatic support to Ukraine, they have sought to counterbalance Russia’s influence in the region.

According to reports, 

• Javelin and Stinger Systems: The U.S. provided anti-armor and anti-air systems, including 8,000 Javelin and 1,600 Stinger missiles, contributing significantly to Ukraine’s success in the Russia Ukriane war Kyiv.
  
• Artillery and Ammunition Support: Assistance included 160 howitzers, 38 High Mobility Artillery Rocket systems, and over one million rounds of artillery ammunition, strengthening Ukraine’s defense in the Donbas region and facilitating counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson.
  
• Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities: The U.S. provided air defense systems and counter-drone capabilities, aiding Ukraine in protecting its people and infrastructure against ongoing Russian attacks.
  
• Armored Capabilities: Support involved 109 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, enhancing Ukraine’s readiness for future counteroffensives and adaptation to changing ground conditions
  
• Territorial Reclamation: The aid contributed to the reclamation of hundreds of kilometers of territory, liberating towns and villages subjected to Russian brutality.
  
• Artillery Ammunition Breakdown: More than one million rounds of artillery ammunition, 100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition, and 100,000 rounds of small arms ammunition were provided.
  
• Additional Equipment: Helicopters, Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels, and counter-UAV systems were part of the support package.
  
• Plan to Prevent Illicit Diversion: The Departments of Defense and State released a plan to prevent and counter the potential illicit diversion of weapons and equipment.
  
• Ukraine Defense Contact Group: The U.S., along with European partners, initiated the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of 50 partner nations coordinating security assistance deliveries. This group committed $50 billion in security assistance, including various military assets, to aid Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s unjust assault.

Military Operations and Tactics Used in Russia Ukraine war

The Russia Ukraine war has witnessed various forms of warfare, each with its own consequences and strategies. From military warfare to cyber warfare, from satellite warfare to social warfare, Russia Ukraine war has witnessed various forms of warfare tactics making it even more challenging for the settlement of the war in Ukraine.

Forms of Warfare Employed

Russia Ukraine war has witnessed a rarely witnessed warfare strategy –  both Conventional and Hybrid warfare. To understand the warfare strategy adopted in ongoing war in Ukraine, lets understand both the forms of warfare individually.

Conventional Warfare:

Conventional warfare refers to traditional, state-on-state military conflict characterized by the use of regular armed forces and conventional weapons. In this type of warfare, nations engage in direct, open confrontations with well-defined fronts, clear lines of command, and adherence to established rules of engagement.

Conventional military operations involve the use of conventional weapons such as tanks, artillery, infantry, and aircraft. The strategies and tactics employed in conventional warfare are generally structured, and the goal is often to defeat the enemy’s armed forces through superior firepower, maneuverability, and strategic positioning.

The outcomes of conventional warfare are typically decided on battlefields, and the conflicts are governed by international laws and conventions.

Hybrid Warfare:

Hybrid warfare, on the other hand, represents a more complex and multifaceted form of conflict that combines conventional military tactics with unconventional methods. In hybrid warfare, state and non-state actors blend traditional military strategies with elements of irregular warfare, information warfare, cyber warfare, economic coercion, and political subversion.

This approach aims to exploit weaknesses in the adversary’s defenses across multiple domains, blurring the lines between war and peace. Hybrid warfare often involves a combination of military force, propaganda, cyber attacks, and other non-traditional methods to achieve strategic objectives.

The use of irregular forces, proxy groups, and non-state actors is common in hybrid warfare, making it challenging for traditional military forces to counter effectively.

Cyber warefare

Amidst the Russia Ukraine war, Russia initiated cyber warfare through DDoS attacks and the “FoxBlade” malware to disrupt Ukraine’s internet and control centers. In response, Ukraine fortified its cyber defenses by dispersing digital infrastructure into the public cloud and collaborating with tech giants like Cloudflare and Microsoft. Anonymous joined the cyber fray, targeting Russian institutions.

The war’s impact extended to Ukraine’s fiber network, with 22% damaged and 1,350 cyberattacks registered in H1 2022. Social media played a pivotal role in the conflict, providing real-time updates and enabling Ukraine to target specific Russian military groups. Occupied areas experienced rerouted internet traffic, raising concerns about surveillance through Russia’s SORM system.

Satellites & Tech companies

Tech companies took action by restricting Russian state-affiliated media on social platforms. Elon Musk’s Starlink assisted Ukraine with 5,000 satellite terminals initially, totaling 25,000 deployed to date. Starlink played a crucial role in maintaining connectivity and aiding defensive coordination, although SpaceX warned against potential weaponization for drone control.

Various commercial space companies supported Ukraine in remote sensing and satellite communications, crucial for intelligence on Russian troop movements. Financial concerns arose, with SpaceX losing $20 million monthly in unpaid Starlink service costs. Télécoms Sans Frontières provided emergency telecom support, addressing the refugee crisis affecting over eight million people.

All in all, war in Ukraine witnessed almost all different tactics of war strategies which seem to have accelerated the destruction and impact of the conflict. From Diplomatic games to Geopolitical wins, both the countries are taking active steps to establish their win in this war.

Impact on Civilian Life and Infrastructure

Civilian life and infrastructure have been deeply affected by the Russia Ukraine war. Both intentional targeting and collateral damage have caused extensive damage to critical infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, and utility services.

Since the beginning of Russia Ukraine war in 2022, civilians have borne the brunt of a catastrophic conflict, resulting in numerous casualties and extensive infrastructure destruction.

Russian forces stand accused of grave violations of international humanitarian law, engaging in indiscriminate bombing and specifically targeting homes, healthcare facilities, and educational institutions. The severity of these actions has prompted calls for a war crimes investigation.

In areas under Russian control, apparent war crimes such as torture, summary executions, sexual violence, enforced disappearances, and cultural property looting have been reported. Civilians attempting to flee conflict zones faced obstacles and, in some cases, were forcibly transferred to Russia or Russian-occupied areas. Abusive security screenings were conducted by Russian forces on those escaping the conflict. Needless to say, Russia has experienced a great loss to its image geopolitically.

The repeated countrywide attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including energy facilities, were seemingly aimed at terrorizing civilians and rendering their lives unsustainable, raising implications of war crimes. The global community has strongly condemned Russia’s actions, and the overall situation has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis in the region.

The humanitarian crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine has led to mass displacement and severe human rights violations. This includes limited access to healthcare, education, and basic necessities, further exacerbating the suffering of the civilian population. Additionally, power dynamics within Ukraine have been significantly altered, leading to social and political shifts within the country.

Socio-Economic and Geopolitical Ramifications of war in Ukraine

The Russia Ukraine war carries substantial socio-economic and geopolitical ramifications that extend beyond the borders of these two nations. Russia Ukraine war has shifted power dynamics in the entire world, along-with the inflation in prices of the energy resources.

Economic Consequences

Russia’s aggressive invasion has inflicted widespread poverty and significant damage to Ukraine’s economy, although it has not completely obliterated it. Concurrently, global sanctions are placing strain on Russia’s economy, yet the conflict persists, causing financial turmoil and personal hardships worldwide.

Ukraine, once among the poorest Soviet republics, is grappling with a devastating economic downturn, experiencing a 30-35% loss in GDP within the first year of the Russia Ukraine war. This has led to a surge in poverty to 24.2%, impacting an additional 7.1 million people and wiping out 15 years of progress. Despite being a major crop exporter before the war in Ukraine, it now faces severe food insecurity, exacerbated by job losses resulting from infrastructure destruction. The war in Ukraine has disrupted agriculture, affecting a significant portion of the population in Ukraine.

The Russia Ukraine war has forced over six million Ukrainians to flee, creating a substantial gap in the national workforce. While providing a lifeline to those affected, forced migration presents long-term challenges. The trajectory of Ukraine’s recovery hinges on the war’s duration, and considering Russia’s 2024 plans, a swift resolution to war in Ukraine seems unlikely.

Global sanctions on Russia, though impactful, have not halted the aggression or led to diplomatic negotiations. However, these measures have significantly impacted Russia’s economy, with a revised World Bank forecast indicating a 4.5% decline in GDP for 2022.

By various estimates, Russia incurs a daily expenditure ranging from $500 million to $1 billion during the ongoing war in Ukraine. In July 2023, the country faced an unprecedented deficit of factory workers, with over 43% of industrial enterprises experiencing shortages, a notable increase from the 35% reported in April.

Despite initial skepticism, evidence suggests that sanctions and trade restrictions have been effective, severely damaging Russia’s economy and curtailing its ability to sustain military operations.

The European Union (EU) has implemented 11 rounds of sanctions on Russia since the full-blown war in Ukraine started its in February 2022, targeting key oil and gas exports. A 12th package of measures, including a ban on the import of Russian diamonds, is currently in development.

The imposition of economic sanctions on Russia by the European Union and other countries has further intensified the economic consequences. These sanctions aim to isolate Russia and exert pressure to change its behavior, but they also have implications for global trade and economic stability.

Geopolitical Shifts

The Russia Ukraine war carries substantial implications for European security, challenging the idea of a stable and peaceful European order while underscoring the vulnerability of Eastern European nations to Russian influence.

This has prompted a reassessment of alliances and partnerships among countries, seeking protection against potential aggression. Globally, the war in Ukraine has spotlighted power dynamics and the evolving balance of power between Russia and Western nations, casting doubt on the effectiveness of international organizations and norms in addressing and preventing conflicts.

In the Middle East, the impact of Russia Ukraine war is noteworthy, contributing to elevated energy prices and a food crisis, thereby testing the internal governance and development initiatives of Middle Eastern countries.

Middle Eastern countries generally maintain a neutral stance in the ongoing geopolitical dynamics between the United States and Russia regarding the Russia Ukraine war. These nations prioritize a balanced position, carefully shaping their policy decisions based on their own interests. In this pursuit, they exhibit the courage to reject specific requests from the United States, showcasing a trend towards a growing equilibrium in the influence of foreign powers on the Middle East.

The United States remains dedicated to restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and rejects Russia’s claims to Crimea and other unlawfully annexed regions. Prior to the beginning of Russia Ukraine war 2022, the U.S. supported a resolution of the Donbas conflict through the Minsk agreements.

Since the 2022 offensive, Western powers and their allies have taken extensive measures to support Ukraine and penalize Russia. As of February 2023, the United States has contributed over $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, including advanced military assistance like rocket systems, helicopters, drones, and tanks. Several NATO allies are also providing similar support.

Simultaneously, international sanctions on Russia have significantly expanded, encompassing its financial, energy, defense, and tech sectors, targeting the assets of oligarchs and individuals. The U.S. and some European governments have restricted Russian banks’ access to SWIFT and imposed limitations on Russia’s ability to access foreign reserves, in addition to blacklisting Russia’s central bank. Many influential Western companies have ceased or paused operations in Russia, and the Group of Eight, now the Group of Seven, suspended Russia indefinitely in 2014.

The invasion resulted in Germany suspending regulatory approval for Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a significant blow, as critics, including U.S. and Ukrainian officials, had opposed the pipeline, citing concerns about Russia’s increased political influence. In August, Russia also indefinitely halted operations of Nord Stream 1, which supplied as much as a third of the European natural gas market.

Cultural and Identity Challenges

The conflict has exposed deep-seated cultural and identity divisions within Ukraine. Ethnic and national identity have played a significant role in shaping the Russian Ukraine war, with clashes between Ukrainian speakers and Russian speakers, as well as tensions between different regions of the country.

Language divisions and cultural polarization have further complicated the conflict, making reconciliation and the building of a shared future a substantial challenge. Revisiting historical narratives and promoting dialogue and understanding are crucial steps in overcoming these challenges.

In conclusion, the Russia Ukraine war is a multifaceted issue with complex historical, geopolitical, and humanitarian dimensions. Understanding the motivations, strategies, and impacts of the key players involved is essential in comprehending the conflict’s intricacies. The long-lasting ramifications of this Russia Ukraine war will continue to shape regional and global dynamics for years to come. 

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